China to Invade Taiwan in Six Years？ U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Nominee： Closer than Most Think
United Daily News, March 24, 2021
Admiral Philip Davidson, the incumbent commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, stated that Taiwan is one of China’s ambitions and will face clear threat within six years. As to the possible timetable of China’s annexation of Taiwan, Admiral John Aquilino, the nominee for commander, stated on March 23 that this problem is closer to us than most think.
Republican Senator Tom Cotton from Arkansas questioned Aquilino whether mid-spring is a better season for China’s armed forces to attack Taiwan, and Aquilino answered that it would be a better time according to maritime meteorology.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command will change hands, and the incumbent head and the nominee for this position testified separately before the Senate Committee on Armed Services, and both were asked about possible invasion of Taiwan by China.
When questioned by Senator Cotton, Aquilino answered that Beijing views the annexation of Taiwan as its number one priority during the period of the rejuvenation and existence of the Communist Party of China (CPC), so the Taiwan problem is very important to China. From the military point, Taiwan is situated at the strategic position that may affect two-thirds of world trade, so it is very critical. Aquilino said that if there is conflict in Taiwan, then the United States and its allies would also face risks.
Aquilino testified that if China annexed Taiwan, then it would cause two strategic problems. First, the annexation would be a potential threat to the world trade, and second, it would damage American credibility in its Asian allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
According to Aquilino, if Beijing were to build Taiwan into a military base and deploy fighters and military vessels, then China’s influence and sphere of competition would increase and threaten U.S. allies and partners. He also said that the United States will continue its freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea, but it would face more risks.
Davidson told Senate Committee on Armed Services on March 3 that China is accelerating its ambitions to replace the United States as the world leader before 2025, and Taiwan is one of China’s ambitions and could face clear threat within six years.
Aquilino stated that from his viewpoint, the Taiwan problem is closer to us than most think and the United States must take immediate actions by establishing deterrence capabilities, including the Pacific Deterrence Initiative.
In addition to Davidson, former White House National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, who served under President Donald Trump, told the Senate Committee on Armed Services on March 2 that Taiwan is the biggest flashpoint that could cause a large-scale war in the world; he estimated that after the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing and the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2022, Taiwan would face the greatest risk of the military conflict.
In its report to the Congress, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command will raise the budget for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative from $2.2 billion in fiscal year 2021 to $4.6 billion in fiscal year 2022 and plans to spend $27.3 billion in the next five years. The United States plans to deploy military facilities such as Aegis missile defense systems and tactical radars in Guam and Palau to beef up defense.
In his written answers to the Senate, Aquilino stated that in order to avoid misjudgments, the United States could show its sustained support for the Taiwan Relations Act by maintaining forward deployment and deterrence capabilities, including arm sales to Taiwan, deepening contacts with the democratic Taiwan, and establishing like-minded alliances and partners.
Aquilino reiterated that the United States will follow the long-term commitments under the three communiques between the United States and China, the Taiwan Relations Act, and Six Assurances to help Taiwan maintain its sufficient self-defense capabilities.